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Monday, 31 January 2022

Budget 2022 : Govt needs to focus on Infrastructure,Health, Agriculture and Export.



India is now USD 3.20 trillion economy and it aims to touch the USD 5 trillion mark by 2025.To achieve this target, Budget 2022 needs to focus on infrastructure, Health, Agriculture and Export.

Infrastructure
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget 2022 on 1feb 2022. I think infrastructure will be top priority.we know investment in infrastructure has strong impact on economic growth on any country.We know $1 investment in infra can generate $20 economic activities. We also know Agriculture, Manufacturing & Services sector directly related to infrastructure.

Health budget at lest 3% of GDP
We know medical debt a major cause of poverty in India.About 55 million Indians were pushed into poverty in a single year due to patient- care costs, as per a study by the Public Health Foundation of India.
So, Union budget 2022,needs to focus on healthcare segment ,public expenditure on the sector needs at least 3 per cent of the GDP in the upcoming union budget.

Agriculture Budget
over 55% of India’s population in rural areas and linked to farm incomes, any increase in rural growth will translate into economic growth for the country.So,a majority of Indians want agriculture to be the top focus areas of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Union Budget 2022.
We know Union Government adopted a strategy to double the farmers' income by 2022.But,The average monthly real income of the all categories of farmer households at all-India level has actually declined from Rs. 6045 in 2012-13 to Rs. 5925 in 2018-19 . So, Union budget 22 needs to focus on agriculture & farmers income.

Export
Trade one of the key indicator of economic growth.But India is a trade deficit country.India depends on import rather than export.

According to Kotak Securities,the country’s trade deficit is expected to widen to $190 billion in the current fiscal year 2021-22, and further to $200 billion in the next fiscal year 2022-23.

We know India has set a target of $400 billion for merchandise exports for the current fiscal and an ambitious $1 trillion by 2030.But India achieved $300 billion in merchandise export from Apl -Dec 21.India's export fell faster among emerging countries,need strong budget boost.I think strategic incentives through
the  budget may help boost exports.i think India's export could reach $1.50 trillion by 2030.






Sunday, 9 January 2022

PM Modi's vision- $2 trillion export economy by 2030.



Prime Minister  Modi's Vision, USD 2 trillion export economy by 2030.

Exports  play a major role in the economic development of any country. A developed economy is the one,which exports more than it imports.A developed economy is the one,which exports more than its imports.Higher exports draw more foreign remittances, creating more jobs and trade surplus. In a single word we can say higher exports  impove the overall economic growth of the country. 

We know Trade deficit one of the biggest issue in Indian economy.India has been recording sustained trade deficits since 1980 mainly due to the strong imports,partic ularly of mineral fuels,Vegetable oils, electronic component,
agro products,precious and semi-precious stones, and jewellery etc.

Since India opened its markets starting 1990-91, there has been an exponential rise in the country's foreign trade exposure – exports have increased more than 16 times and imports more than 19 times. In FY 2020-21, India's imports and exports stood at US$394.43 billion and US$291.80 billion, respectively.

PM Modi lead BJP govt set a target USD 2 trillion export economy by 2030.This could reduce trade deficit , India could reach as a trade surplus country by 2030.

Modi govt has taken several steps to boost export & Manufacturing sector. 

1. Make in India - Is the Modi govt flagship campaign , aims to make India the manufacturing hub of the world.
Make in India aims  to boost the domestic manufacturing industry and attract foreign investors to invest into the Indian economy.
 The  policy  was launched September 2014.The focus of Make in India programme is on 25 sectors. These include: automobiles, automobile components, aviation, biotechnology, chemicals, construction, defence manufacturing electrical machinery, electronic systems, food processing, IT & BPM, leather, media and entertainment, mining, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, ports and shipping, railways, renewable energy, roads and highways, space, textile and garments, thermal power, tourism and hospitality and wellness.

We know FDI in India has followed a positive trend since the launch of make in India. Total  FDI inflow increased 69% ,USD  266 billion (2007-8 to 2013-14) to $450 billion (2014-15 to 2020-21).....We can expect a total USD  1.5 trillion FDI between  2021-22 to 2030-31.

2. Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme  to stop imports 
The Hon’ble Prime Minister,Modi ji announced a special economic package on 12 May 2020 of $290 billion or Rs.20 lakh crore (equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP) under the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’. This special economic package was announced to  stop imports.

3.  USD 1.5 trillion Gati Shakti master plan for infrastructure 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on 13 October'21, had launched a Rs 100 lakh crore national master plan for multi-modal connectivity to develop infrastructure to reduce logistic costs ,boost export & economy.

4. Agriculture Export Policy
comprehensive “Agriculture Export Policy” was launched in December 2018 to double farmers’ income by 2022 and provide an impetus to agricultural exports.
The new agri export policy will help India to double agricultural export from the present  $30 billion to $60 billion by 2022.

5. National Logistics policy 
As per economic survey 2017-18, a 10% decrease in indirect logistics cost could lead to an export growth of 5-8%.
Modi govt created a new logistics division for the integrated development of the logistics sector. India’s rank in World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index moved up from 54 in 2014 to 44 in 2018.

6. Prouction Linked Incentive Scheme 
Modi govt introduced Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme,which aimed to boost domestic manufacturing & export  under the government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, was introduced in March last year and is expected to result in a minimum production worth more than $500 billion in five years.

Modi govt has announced an outlay of $ 27 billion or Rs 1.97 lakh crore for the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for 13 identified sectors in 2021-22 budget . 
PLI scheme will help India to become a  $2 trillion export economy by 2030.

7.  RODTEP scheme for exporters
RoDTEP (Refund of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products) is a flagship export promotion scheme of Modi govt. The scheme aims to refund to the exporters the embedded central, state and local duties and taxes paid on inputs that were so far not refunded or rebated. 
Modi govt has announced (2021-22 ) a $1.8 Rs 12,400cr outlay for the Remission of duties and Taxes on Exported Products(RoDTEP) export promotion scheme. 


Export show positive growth under Modi govt 

1. Electronics  goods export hit record.
Electronic  goods export reached an all time high ,due to modi govt's make in India and new export policy. Electronic goods export up $6.5 billion or   Rs 47,500 cr to Rs $11.5 billion or 81,900 cr between  year 2014-21.

2. Pharma exports grew
India’s pharmaceutical export grew  under Modi govt , $25 billion from $14 billion (between 2014-21).

3.Defence export up
India's defence exports 1500% up from $.09 billion or Rs 686 cr in  2013-14 to $ 1.5 billion or Rs 10745 cr in 2018-19.India has set an ambitious target to achieve exports of $5 billion or Rs 35000 cr in aerospace and defence goods and services by 2025.

4. Rise export grew
India’s total Basmati  and non basmati rice export grew 40% between FY 14 to FY21.
In FY 21 total rice export was  $8.8 billion &  in FY14 it was $6.4 billion 

5.  Services export grew
India’s service export hit   USD 214 billion in 2019-20  and it was USD 157 billion in 2013-14. 
India’s  services exports can hit $1 trillion  by 2030.

Modi govt has taken big steps to boost export .I'm confident India’s export economy will USD 2 trillion by 2030.