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Monday, 19 December 2022

India has potential to become a USD-15 trillion economy by 2034 .


✓India has potential to become a USD-15 trillion economy by 2034 .

✓Per capita income close to USD-10,000 by 2034.


India is a fastest growing economy in the world.India has huge potential to become a $15 trillion economy by 2034 & per capita income close to USD10,000 by 2034.

Yes, it is possible in next 10-12 yrs.india needs to focus on -Agriculture sector,R&D,High Speed Rail Network,betters roads connectivity  & Renewal energy.

Agriculture sector-we know India is a agro based country,approx 60% of Indian population work in the agro sector,it contribute 18-19% to India's GDP.

We also know Agriculture the key sector for overall growth in agriculture-based countries. Agricultural growth has strong growth linkages to other economic sectors(industry and services). When agricultural incomes are spent on domestic market,  it stimulates demand for domestic industry and services.

India needs reforms in agriculture sector.

India needs supply side reform,this  initiatives can save  multi billion dollar annually-

✓Reforms can reduce multi  billion-dollar  Post-harvest losses - Agri import bill. 

✓Reforms can save multi  billion-dollar Fuel -Electricity -NPAs in Farm loans -Fertilizer-Seeds- Pesticides by cutting waste.

✓Reforms can boost agri export,can generate  billion dollar revenues. 

✓Reforms can help to reduces excessive water consumption- farmer suicides -agririon riots - fiscal deficit.

We know India's agricultural subsidy bill  2.5% of GDP, $70 billion dollars.

R&D-Innovation drives Economic Growth,

every  $1 investment in R&D generates $20 in economic activity.

But ,India’s gross expenditure on Research and Development (R&D) is very low .it's only 0.8% of its GDP, when calculate per capita, it’s one of the lowest in the world.where as Israel invest approx 5%($18 billion) of its GDP on R&D ,USA invest 2.7%($470 billion ),china  invest 2.30%(412 billion ) of its GDP on R&D, Japan 3.3% ( $150 billion), Germany 3% ( $105 billion) ,South Korea. 4.2% of its GDP ($76 billion). 

I think india  needs to invest  at least 2.5%  of its GDP (65-70 billion USD) in R&D from the current level 0.8%.

I firmly believe that,  india may become a global  leader in innovation by  2025,india could improve its rank from 60 to top 10....if india manage to invest   2.5% of its GDP in Research & Development (R&D ).

This simple initiative will help India to reduce trade deficit,india's export economy can hit $ 3 trillion mark  with  in next 10 years.

High Speed Rail Network-Indian Railways is often called the lifeline of the nation.But Indian railways speed very low,average speed of freight trains is 24-30 km per hour whereas passenger trains run at 44-50 km per hour. 

So,India needs speed revolution.India should go for  high-speed Rail network.

High speed rail projects have the potential to reduce transportation costs, cut oil use, relieve highway and air traffic congestion, enhance other forms of public transportation, increase land values, and spur economic development in large and small communities.

So,without high speed India can't achieve USD-15 trillion economy by 2034.




Monday, 5 December 2022

India has potential to attract USD 170 billion FDI per year by 2025.

India has potential to attract USD 170 billion FDI per year by 2025.




Make in India is a one of the major national programme of Modi govt designed to facilitie investment, foster innovation, enhance skill development, protect intellectual property and build best in class manufacturing infrastructure in the country.

Make in India & FDI inflows-
Make in India, the flagship program of the Modi govt,that has completed eight years on 25 September 2022.And India is on track to attract US$ 100 billion  FDI in the current financial year. 

Make in India launched in 2014 under the dynamic leadership of the Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, ‘Make in India’ is transforming the country into a leading global manufacturing and investment destination. The initiative is an open invitation to potential investors and partners across the globe to participate in the growth story of ‘New India’.  Make In India has substantial accomplishments across 27 sectors. These include strategic sectors of manufacturing and services as well. 

To attract foreign investments, Government of India has put in place a liberal and transparent policy wherein most sectors are open to FDI under the automatic route. FDI inflows in India stood at US $ 45.15 billion in 2014-2015 and have since consecutively reached record FDI inflows for eight years. The year 2021-22 recorded the highest ever FDI at $83.6 billion. This FDI has come from 101 countries, and invested across 31 UTs and States and 57 sectors in the country. On the back of economic reforms and Ease of Doing Business in recent years, India is on track to attract US$ 100 Billion  FDI in the current Financial year.

India can attract $170 billion FDI annually by 2025-
India can expect to attract  USD170 billion of FDI annually by 2025,when India's GDP expected to reach USD 4.50 trillion from current level USD 3.50 trillion.






Effect of Make in India campaign -

1) India improves  "rank in ease of doing business" according to World Bank report has improved from 142 in 2014 to 63 in 2020.

2) FDI -Modi govt received 75% more FDI against 10 yrs of Manmohan govt.
Under 10 yrs of  Manmohan govt India got total FDI $300 billion.
Under 8 yrs of Modi govt ,FDI received $525 billion.India can expect total FDI $750-$800 billion under 10 yrs of Modi sarkar.

3) Due to make in india campaign the manufacturing sector is expected to reach US$ 1.15 trillion by 2025 and contribute about 25% to India's GDP from current level 17%.

4) Mobile Phone manufacturing -2014, over 92% of Mobile phones used in India were imported; today, over 97% of mobile phones used in India are made in India. According to industry body India Cellular and Electronics Association,  India has reduced dependency on mobile imports to around five percent in FY22, from as high as 78 percent in 2014-15. India aims to export 60 billion dollars of cell phones by 2025-26.

5) Defence export-In the 2021-22 fiscal, India's defence exports touched a record Rs 13,000 crore, which was nearly eight times that of the 2014 figure. India aims to achieve defence exports worth Rs 35,000 cr by 2025.


'Make in India' will make India a global manufacturing hub & contribution of manufacturing in GDP will 17% to 25% in next 5-6 yrs.Make in India' will help India to become a  USD 10 trillion by 2032.