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Monday, 19 December 2022

India has potential to become a USD-15 trillion economy by 2034 .


✓India has potential to become a USD-15 trillion economy by 2034 .

✓Per capita income close to USD-10,000 by 2034.


India is a fastest growing economy in the world.India has huge potential to become a $15 trillion economy by 2034 & per capita income close to USD10,000 by 2034.

Yes, it is possible in next 10-12 yrs.india needs to focus on -Agriculture sector,R&D,High Speed Rail Network,betters roads connectivity  & Renewal energy.

Agriculture sector-we know India is a agro based country,approx 60% of Indian population work in the agro sector,it contribute 18-19% to India's GDP.

We also know Agriculture the key sector for overall growth in agriculture-based countries. Agricultural growth has strong growth linkages to other economic sectors(industry and services). When agricultural incomes are spent on domestic market,  it stimulates demand for domestic industry and services.

India needs reforms in agriculture sector.

India needs supply side reform,this  initiatives can save  multi billion dollar annually-

✓Reforms can reduce multi  billion-dollar  Post-harvest losses - Agri import bill. 

✓Reforms can save multi  billion-dollar Fuel -Electricity -NPAs in Farm loans -Fertilizer-Seeds- Pesticides by cutting waste.

✓Reforms can boost agri export,can generate  billion dollar revenues. 

✓Reforms can help to reduces excessive water consumption- farmer suicides -agririon riots - fiscal deficit.

We know India's agricultural subsidy bill  2.5% of GDP, $70 billion dollars.

R&D-Innovation drives Economic Growth,

every  $1 investment in R&D generates $20 in economic activity.

But ,India’s gross expenditure on Research and Development (R&D) is very low .it's only 0.8% of its GDP, when calculate per capita, it’s one of the lowest in the world.where as Israel invest approx 5%($18 billion) of its GDP on R&D ,USA invest 2.7%($470 billion ),china  invest 2.30%(412 billion ) of its GDP on R&D, Japan 3.3% ( $150 billion), Germany 3% ( $105 billion) ,South Korea. 4.2% of its GDP ($76 billion). 

I think india  needs to invest  at least 2.5%  of its GDP (65-70 billion USD) in R&D from the current level 0.8%.

I firmly believe that,  india may become a global  leader in innovation by  2025,india could improve its rank from 60 to top 10....if india manage to invest   2.5% of its GDP in Research & Development (R&D ).

This simple initiative will help India to reduce trade deficit,india's export economy can hit $ 3 trillion mark  with  in next 10 years.

High Speed Rail Network-Indian Railways is often called the lifeline of the nation.But Indian railways speed very low,average speed of freight trains is 24-30 km per hour whereas passenger trains run at 44-50 km per hour. 

So,India needs speed revolution.India should go for  high-speed Rail network.

High speed rail projects have the potential to reduce transportation costs, cut oil use, relieve highway and air traffic congestion, enhance other forms of public transportation, increase land values, and spur economic development in large and small communities.

So,without high speed India can't achieve USD-15 trillion economy by 2034.